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How Israel and the UAE Target Türkiye's Closest Allies
MOGADISHU — Hassan Yaqub Ali, one of Al-Shabaab’s most senior and hardline commanders, has reportedly been seen among the fighters who overran Diinsoor in Somalia’s Bay region, as militias loyal to former South West State president Laftagareen seized town after town and Ethiopian troops serving under the African Union mission, according to local sources, stood aside without firing a shot. The convergence of an Al-Shabaab commander on the front line, foreign-backed militias and Western-funded peacekeepers who no longer fight is raising alarm in Mogadishu that the offensive is not an ordinary insurgency but a coordinated campaign, allegedly financed by the UAE, to reshape Somalia’s political map.
According to residents, forces loyal to Laftagareen, together with Al-Shabaab, captured Qansahdheere earlier this month, seized Buurhakaba after heavy fighting, and entered Berdaale, Diinsoor and Awdiinle after government-aligned troops withdrew. Apart from Buurhakaba, most of these advances took place without major fighting.
This picture has placed Ethiopian troops serving under the African Union mission at the center of the storm. According to a Red Sea Axis report citing local sources, Ethiopian forces deliberately withdrew from several key towns in Bay region, paving the way for Al-Shabaab to take them over, and vacated bases that had been retaken from the group only at heavy cost. The same report also says that UAE-sourced money was used to bribe officers in the region into abandoning their posts.
The appearance of an Al-Shabaab leader in towns across South West State points to a broader picture. According to sources, the UAE is financing a campaign aimed at confining the federal government’s authority to Mogadishu, Israel is providing intelligence, and Emirati money and weapons are being channeled through intermediaries linked to Kenyan intelligence. The sources name Al-Shabaab, elements of Jubbaland’s forces, Ethiopia’s Liyu Police and forces loyal to Laftagareen as the forces to be used in the campaign, and say that one of its central objectives is to end Türkiye's presence in Somalia.
The current South West administration has presented evidence that forces loyal to Laftagareen are cooperating with Al-Shabaab.
Ethiopia had supposedly said that more than 3,000 Ethiopian troops would begin leaving Bay and Bakool to redeploy to Tigray, Amhara and Afar. But that is not what is happening. Ethiopian troops remain in their positions without leaving. They have simply stopped intervening against Al-Shabaab and stopped fighting it. And the salaries of these troops are paid by European and American taxpayers.
If a senior Al-Shabaab commander is indeed directing operations in Diinsoor while foreign-backed militias advance alongside him, Somalia is not facing a routine security setback. It is facing a coordinated attempt to redraw its political map, while Western-funded peacekeepers step aside as it unfolds.
