Politics & Security
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A report titled “The Anatomy of Israeli Expansionism,” prepared by Türkiye’s National Intelligence Academy, stresses that Israel’s rivalry with Türkiye has moved beyond the Eastern Mediterranean into the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. The report singles out Somalia as “one of the clearest arenas” of the divergence between the two countries, and assesses Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as part of a strategy to encircle Türkiye.
ANKARA — The report, published in October 2026 by Türkiye’s National Intelligence Academy, finds that the strategic divergence between Türkiye and Israel has expanded beyond their immediate neighbourhood of Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, and has become visible across a wide geography stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
In a section titled “Expanding Geopolitical Rivalry: The Eastern Mediterranean and the Horn of Africa,” the report states that the main aim of Israel’s overt and covert activities in these regions is to expand its own sphere of influence while restricting Türkiye’s. “The ultimate goal is for Türkiye to become geopolitically inward-looking and focused on its internal security,” the report says.
“Somaliland move has gone beyond symbolic recognition”
The report describes Somalia as “one of the clearest arenas where the Türkiye-Israel divergence has materialized in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.” It notes that Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state on 26 December 2025, followed by the Somaliland leader’s first official visit to Israel in June 2026 and the opening of a Somaliland embassy in Jerusalem, showing that the relationship “has gone beyond symbolic recognition.”
Recalling that Türkiye considered the decision an open interference in Somalia’s internal affairs and a violation of its territorial integrity, the report highlights that Somaliland’s strategic location on the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb offers Israel “a new strategic access opportunity.” It adds that as Türkiye’s security and military support to Somalia deepens, the strategic spheres of the two countries “directly intersect” around the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Warning of regional polarization
The report warns that Israel’s Somaliland move carries the risk of escalating and spreading destabilizing conflicts, including Al-Shabaab terrorism and the civil wars in Yemen and Sudan. If other states follow suit or the step turns into a regional polarization, it says, existing problems will deepen and the resolution of conflicts will become more difficult. This, the report notes, “will affect not only the Horn of Africa but all of Africa and the Middle East.”
Sudan: Israel’s indirect support
The report emphasizes that Sudan is also becoming an increasingly important part of this expanding area of rivalry. It states that Türkiye provides diplomatic, economic and humanitarian support to Sudan’s legitimate government and carries out mediation efforts, while Israel “indirectly supports the war and instability through various allied states.”
Noting that Sudan, with its Red Sea coastline and ports, is a key stakeholder in Türkiye’s Horn of Africa and Red Sea strategy, the report stresses that the Sudan and Somalia files cannot be analyzed separately. It says the Sudan-Somalia axis has become “a strategic area where the different security and influence projects of Türkiye, Israel and Gulf actors intersect.”
A strategy to encircle Türkiye
The report states that Israel aims to compete with Türkiye across a broad area stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Balkans and from the Red Sea to the Horn of Africa, describing the defence agreement signed with Greece and the recognition of Somaliland as “current outputs of this goal.” The report recommends that Israel’s alliance-building efforts and diplomatic moves aimed at encircling and excluding Türkiye be closely monitored.
